Tuesday, July 10, 2012

BPI: Implosion or Buy Op?

At Seeking Alpha I wrote an article on Bridgepoint Education Inc. (BPI), inspired by the news that it suffered an unfavorable accreditation decision from the regulator of a new region into which it has expanded operations. Before getting into the specifics of Bridgepoint's accreditation issue, some perspective is warranted on the company as a whole:

BPI Revenue Chart

BPI Revenue data by YCharts

The irritating double-Y-axis is a necessary evil, as showing the results with a single Y-axis by depicting the company's metrics' percent change causes the earnings yield growth to flatten toward insignificance the sales metric:

BPI Revenue Chart

BPI Revenue data by YCharts

For some reason, YCharts gives a different duration when the earnings yield is excluded from the graph. As you can see, the sales have grown consistently and are now over 500% ahead of what they were in 2008:
BPI Revenue Chart

BPI Revenue data by YCharts

So the real question is: do you believe the folks at BPI are dufuses who don't know their business, or are they experiencing what happens to a lot of other enterprises in heavily-regulated environments, and getting a "we're the boss, and we want you trying harder" letter from regulators who want to be taken seriously by everyone who's watching the exchange?

From the panic selling, you'd think the market was giving up on BPI as possessing the competence to remain accredited in the only business it knows:
BPI Chart

BPI data by YCharts


Time will tell.

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