Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Expect Crazy iPhone Share Numbers

Since iPhones were basically out of stock last quarter (Jobs announced 600,000 units sold in the quarter at Apple's developer conference, and then announced 717,000 for the whole quarter), the sales share of the iPhone -- surely noted by some to be "plummeting" -- is likely to take a crazy turn now that iPhone sales have redoubled on the launch of the new model July 11.

Apparently, in the pre-launch period demand for all kinds of smartphones waned, and on launch competing products got slammed. Assuming Rogers' experience in Canada is reflective of broader experience, the industry numbers for smartphone sales will create consternation, and the post-launch sales numbers will create lopsided sales share numbers. Folks will be wondering loudly about the growth of the industry based on competitors' sales, and will be prone to making wild predictions about Apple's future sales based on launch quarter numbers.

Think as you read third parties' bloviations on gadgets and their futures. Anything you invest, you should do on the basis of thoughtful research and not the buffoonery of lazy hypesters. Analysts and reporters don't need to back their predictions with real outcomes. It's your money we're talking about!

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