Back in the '80s Americans regarded the enormous Soviet block military forces as a genuine terror, even without the ever-present and unavoidable threat of overhanging nuclear launch. Moscow's dictators weren't elected, but they had respect internationally because they were regarded as controlling a real and powerful threat to anyone in the world.
Fast forward through the Soviet debacle in Afghanistan, in which an American special forces retiree managed a multi-year multibillion-dollar multinational logistical project to ensure local Afghans had weapons that prevented Soviets from feeling safe in any vehicle anywhere on the land or in the air.
Putin has made no secret that he regards losing the Soviet empire to a pro-democracy wave as a great tragedy, and his speeches make clear that he hopes to restore what Stalin controlled as an international terror from whom civilized people recoiled in fear and disgust. Accordingly, Putin has escalated his effort to restore despotism behind the former Iron Curtain from seizing the Crimean peninsula, consulting with Belarus' dictator (after his 80% landslide loss in a popular election to install honest government) how best to suppress liberty and ensure democracy remains beyond the reach of his own countrymen, and ultimately invading his innocently bystanding neighbor.
Since Ukraine didn't immediately fold at the approach of Soviet Putin's troops, he ordered more and more Russian personnel and materiel across the border into Ukraine. Let me describe how Putin slowly sinks without noticing he's being swallowed by a tar pit. Over the first days of the war, American military sources occasionally opined on the fraction of Putin's preposition forces had actually been commanded into Ukraine. On February 25, U.S. officials estimated only a third of Putin's amassed forces had entered Ukraine. By February 27, U.S. officials estimated two thirds of Putin's pre-positioned force had entered Ukraine. Already, observers noticed the attack had slowed, undermined by logistical problems even as it faced Ukrainian opposition that surprised Russian youths who'd expected to be greeted with flowers. By March 1, Putin's force had been 80% deployed to Ukraine. By March 3, 90% of Putin's pre-prepared resources – tanks, trucks, self-propelled and towed artillery, armored personnel carriers, anti-air systems, and infantry – had actually entered Ukraine. The 40-mile column of vehicles headed from Belarus to Kyiv on a paved road had "stalled" under the weight of logistical failures and Ukrainian attack. By March 7, "nearly 100%" of Putin's prepositioned invasion resources had been deployed. The forces Putin had arrayed about Ukraine to intimidate and overrun it included "up to 190,000 personnel" according to some sources, though U.S. estimates stood at about 150,000 troops, including 120 battalion tactical groups.
The astute observer will note that this doesn't leave Putin a reserve. This is a problem, because they're not obtaining a Ukrainian capitulation.
On March 2, by which time CNN already reported on a 40-mile convoy failing to make progress toward Kyiv, Russian losses were estimated by U.S. sources at 2,000-3,000 soldiers. Last week the US estimated Putin's invasion force had already lost up to 10% of its military assets. Videos circulate online of Russian warplanes, helicopters and armored vehicles being obliterated with high-tech weapons sent to Ukraine by its allies. Due perhaps to Ukraine's access to anti-air technology, Russian air power has been judged a disappointment: it hasn't been willing to expose its best aircraft and hasn't achieved air supremacy. Tank losses according to U.S. estimates on March 8 stood at 204 tanks and 406 other armored vehicles,
Putin's strategy to use foreign trade income to fund domestic suppression of democracy has hit its first serious setback. Before Putin's invasion of Ukraine few could have imagined the international reaction. Germany, which had avoided foreign military involvement and had never in the history of NATO met America's expectation that NATO members invest 2% of their GDP in defense, switched from sending Ukraine kevlar helmets to delivering Stinger anti-air missiles and Javelin antitank weapons and boosting defense spending to €100,000 and exceeding NATO's spending goal for Germany. Unity against Putin's aggression has led to extensive sanctions that, because they're coming from so many directions, isolate Putin's political allies while killing their revenues. Foreign businesses have announced halt of operations in Russia in fields including internet service, retail coffee sales, passenger air service, banking and financial services, beverage supply, consumer electronics, auto manufacture, and more. Russian airlines are forbidden the airspace of, apparently, every democracy on the planet. Russian sports teams and Russian athletes woke to find no international teams will play in Russia and their own teams aren't invited anyplace they want to go. Russian television continues to lie to Russians, but they'll notice the sports has disappeared and there's no Coke and McDonald's closed and they can't buy iPhones and Western films have come to a halt and Netflix doesn't work and on and on. Russia faces product bans and is losing its Most Favored Nation status in international trade. The EU, Russia's largest trading partner, is developing plans to slash dependence on Russian gas exports and Germany has refused to certify Russia's new gas transmission pipeline. Putin can't hide the shame of being an international pariah any more than he can hide that Russians everywhere have lost contact with relatives in the military and Russia is losing troops and equipment orders of magnitude faster than while fighting in vain to control Afghanistan.
Soviets lost some 15,000 soldiers in more than 9 years in Afghanistan and about 50% of that number in less than one month in Ukraine. During the entire Afghanistan campaign Russians lost 147 tanks and 1,314 other vehicles, whereas in Ukraine Putin has cost Russia 374 tanks and 1,226 other armored vehicles just through March 3. Without any reserves to send in, Putin is asking China for help and leaning on tyrants like Assad to send mercenaries recruited from the Syrian army. But do these countries really have enough projectable power to occupy a nation of tens of millions, in the face of a sustained insurgency? Does China want to risk its trade relationships on something that's already proven to attract global condemnation at the very moment it's struggling with the economic impact of COVID-19 variant resurgence?
Ukrainians have won the battle for hearts and minds, and they've achieved more tactically than many expected. Putin has arranged the shelling of civilian residences, hospitals, and civilian infrastructure, even if by FSB officers or Chechen gangs instead of Russian Army regulars; but this will only solidify the conviction Putin's rule is too brutal to consider submitting and ensure the world keeps providing Ukrainian freedom fighters beans and bullets forever.
Putin won't get that equipment back, and the money that he will need to replace the equipment has been shut off. The ruble plummeted at the start of the invasion, and Putin's answer to the collapsing Russian stock market was to close markets: nobody can sell shares now. Onlookers will remember this when the war is over, and understand Russia isn't a safe place to do business. Only the oligarchs who run the companies can profit from Russian firms on closed exchanges. Warren Buffett has experienced Russia's lack of the rule of law, which is why Buffett refuses to do business in Russia: it's unsafe. Now that Russia is announcing seizure of foreign assets, everybody with resources to invest will understand what a disaster investment in Russia can be, and avoid exposure to Russian political risk. (If they do business with Russians it will not be on the basis of credit not secured by assets outside Russia, and it won't involve investment in assets physically in Russia where Russian "justice" and Russian courts would arbitrate disputes.)
Putin has single-handedly mended the fault lines within NATO that Trump formed insulting the alliance and its purpose; he's unified the EU as never before and he's proven the necessity of NATO and driven more nations to consider applying. Putin has cost Russia considerable prestige – if it can't take on Ukraine, who exactly can it beat? – and the fact that its domestic relations campaign is based entirely on lies places public support for his regime on an increasingly brittle foundation. Playing chicken with the international trading community isn't going to help Putin's cronies maintain the domestic resource advantage they need to keep from the fate of the Tsars.
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