tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-726517614184169426.post2580849996014579698..comments2023-08-23T04:15:41.751-05:00Comments on The Jaded Consumer: Timing ACASJaded Consumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04631410690179296528noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-726517614184169426.post-50210306936965794712011-10-04T19:02:23.528-05:002011-10-04T19:02:23.528-05:00Paulson has been selling. He filed tonight.Paulson has been selling. He filed tonight.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-726517614184169426.post-86263301718774175932011-10-02T12:55:57.623-05:002011-10-02T12:55:57.623-05:00ACAS suffers multiple headwinds: its debt load mig...ACAS suffers multiple headwinds: its debt load might scare some investors, its lack of a dividend keeps away a large part of its natural shareholder base, its apparent complexity and opacity (despite the quarterly schedule of investments, what do we really know about level-3 valuations?), its high leverage to the overall economy, its European exposure. <br /><br /><br />Against that, you have its actually acceptable and improving capital structure, its (I would argue) adroit management, and its deep undervaluation based on book and the company's own history. <br /><br />For my money, the second set is more important; for analysts', likely working from a set of technical indicators and market-temperature templates, the first is. <br /><br />I could go on and on about the unreliability of analysts, the conflicting interests, the surface analyses and plug-in-the-numbers mindlessness, the rapidly switching grades on companies in which no fundamental change has taken place, the "hold" ratings on companies with price targets (themselves absurd, giving a sheen of specificity to something largely unpredictable in the short term) 50% above current market and the "buy" ratings on companies with prices targets 10% above current, but this has all been written about more cleverly elsewhere. <br /><br />Basically, if you have a neutral to slightly positive outlook on the US economy (which I do) and on ACAS' management (which I also do), ACAS appears very, very cheap.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com